The Pew Charitable Trust’s State Fiscal Health project shows that Utah’s fertility rate declined the most of any state — by far — when comparing 2023 with the 2011-2020 average.*
Fertility rates are the number of babies born per 1,000 women. Utah women averaged 75 babies per year between 2011 and 2020. That dropped to about 60 by 2023. Utah was second only to South Dakota during 2011-2020. Now Utah is eighth in the nation.
Fertility rates fell in every state in 2023. The West experienced the fastest declines, with the top seven fastest-declining states all in the West. Of the four U.S. regions, the West had the highest fertility rate in the 2000s. It is now the second lowest, behind the Midwest and the South.
Why is this important? Fertility rates can have major fiscal implications for states. For instance, lower rates can relieve some of the pressure from the cost of education due to a lower proportion of children. However, in the long run, lower rates can result in shrunken revenues as a smaller workforce may limit tax bases.
* Please note that the states with the highest rates tended to fall the most. That said, of the four states with rates of 74 or 75 per 1,000, Utah’s rate fell about 21%, while North Dakota, Arkansas, and South Dakota only fell about 16%, 15%, and 13%, respectively. The U.S. fell about 11%.
Source: , How Record-Low Fertility Rates Foreshadow Budget Strain: Every state saw declines in 2023 compared with the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2025/07/08/how-record-low-fertility-rates-foreshadow-budget-strain?fert_dumb_regions=0&fert_tile_data_picker=birthb19
Categories: