The Economic Report presents three visible economic scenarios for the coming year:
- Scenario 1: Continuing Growth – Inflation recedes, interest rate hikes stabilize, historically high financial reserves and low debt levels prop up consumer spending, employers work to retain employees considering recent hiring challenges, and international geopolitical and supply chain challenges stabilize, combining to create 2023 real GDP growth in the 2% to 4% range (similar to 2022 Q3 and Q4).
- Scenario 2: Shallow Recession – High inflation comes down slowly, continued rapid interest rate hikes drive down consumer and firm demand for large capital acquisitions, sizable construction slowdowns and layoffs extend broadly into other sectors, continued international challenges remain disruptive similar to 2022, resulting in a relatively short (two to three quarters) and mild -1% to 1% change in 2023 real GDP.
- Scenario 3: Decelerating Growth – Inflation moderates somewhat, interest rate hikes continue but slow down, household financial buffers only partially offset broader economic challenges, including layoffs in interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as construction, resulting in 2023 real GDP growth in the 0% to 2% range.